Getting into soccer – with statistics!

For the last couple of years, I have been trying (and failing) to get into soccer. As an American, I feel I am expected to like other sports, such as American football, basketball, or watching two guys bludgeon each other to death, but I don’t want any of that, and yet I desire to be a part of a sport with which to talk about.

I chose soccer, because, expect for America, the entire world loves it!

Even then, it is hard for me to approach it with anything more than a passive interest, so I rationalized that I needed to be more invested in the game to give it a visceral sense of importance.

Thus, I turned to the English Premier League and statistics.

After hours of honing my Excel prowess, I got my spreadsheet to match that of the most basic Google search:

Position Team Overall Home Away GD PTS
P W D L F A W D L F A W D L F A
1 Manchester City 10 7 2 1 24 9 3 2 0 11 4 4 0 1 13 5 15 23
2 Arsenal 10 7 2 1 23 10 3 1 1 11 7 4 1 0 12 3 13 23
3 Liverpool 10 7 2 1 24 13 3 1 0 11 3 4 1 1 13 10 11 23
4 Chelsea 10 7 1 2 21 9 4 0 1 13 3 3 1 1 8 6 12 22
5 Tottenham Hotspur 10 5 5 0 14 5 3 2 0 6 2 2 3 0 8 3 9 20
6 Everton 10 5 3 2 15 8 3 2 0 8 3 2 1 2 7 5 7 18
7 Manchester United 10 4 3 3 13 12 2 2 1 8 4 2 1 2 5 8 1 15
8 Watford 10 4 3 3 14 13 2 1 2 8 8 2 2 1 6 5 1 15
9 Southampton 10 3 4 3 11 10 2 2 1 6 5 1 2 2 5 5 1 13
10 Bournemouth 10 3 3 4 12 14 3 1 1 9 4 0 2 3 3 10 -2 12
11 Leicester City 10 3 3 4 12 16 3 2 0 8 2 0 1 4 4 14 -4 12
12 Stoke City 10 3 3 4 12 17 2 1 2 7 10 1 2 2 5 7 -5 12
13 Crystal Palace 10 3 2 5 14 16 1 1 3 7 8 2 1 2 7 8 -2 11
14 Burnley FC 10 3 2 5 8 13 3 1 2 7 4 0 1 3 1 9 -5 11
15 Middlesbrough 10 2 4 4 9 11 1 1 3 5 6 1 3 1 4 5 -2 10
16 West Bromwich Albion 10 2 4 4 10 14 1 2 2 6 9 1 2 2 4 5 -4 10
17 West Ham United 10 3 1 6 10 19 2 1 2 5 8 1 0 4 5 11 -9 10
18 Hull City 10 2 1 7 8 23 1 0 4 3 10 1 1 3 5 13 -15 7
19 Swansea City 10 1 2 7 9 18 0 2 3 4 9 1 0 4 5 9 -9 5
20 Sunderland 10 0 2 8 7 20 0 1 4 5 13 0 1 4 2 7 -13 2

Why bother? Well, NOW I get to make PREDICTIONS. So here are my simplistic predictions for this weekend’s games (based off of this website):

Next Games Home Team Away Team Home Win Away Win Draw
11/5/2016 Manchester City Middlesbrough 27.78% 13.49% 58.73%
11/5/2016 Burnley FC Crystal Palace 20.58% 33.51% 45.91%
11/5/2016 Chelsea Everton 23.68% 18.06% 58.26%
11/5/2016 West Ham United Stoke City 22.39% 37.39% 40.22%
11/5/2016 Bournemouth Sunderland 32.76% 9.12% 58.12%
11/6/2016 Arsenal Tottenham Hotspur 23.91% 25.99% 50.10%
11/6/2016 Liverpool Watford 21.14% 16.46% 62.40%
11/6/2016 Leicester City West Bromwich Albion 12.30% 8.87% 78.82%
11/6/2016 Hull City Southampton 13.35% 40.33% 46.32%
11/6/2016 Swansea City Manchester United 19.46% 45.11% 35.43%

This simple calculation is based off the home team’s attacking position, the away team’s defensive position, and their respective goal scoring statistics home and away. In time, I hope to build on this by adding more factors (shots taken vs. goals, weather, etc.), but this is a good start. Hopefully it retains my interest beyond passive watching.

11-5-2016 Predictions.JPG

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